Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.
The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per snap.
This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 10th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a massive 4.86 YAC.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 3.50 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 1st percentile when it comes to wideouts
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the worst wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.2%) to wideouts this year (57.2%).

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