Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the most reliable receivers in football, completing a stellar 80.5% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in football (72.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (72.6%).

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the least effective receivers in football, averaging just 4.60 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 10th percentile among wideouts
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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