Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to notch 6.8 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba checks in as one of the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a mere 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 16th percentile when it comes to wideouts
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the best WRs in the league in the NFL in the open field.
The Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, yielding 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.