Javonte Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2025

Updated Nov 4, 2025 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-158/+146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cardinals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.4 per game) this year.
With a fantastic ratio of 0.12 per game through the air (81st percentile), Javonte Williams stands as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to RBs this year.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has been torched for the most receiving TDs in the NFL to running backs: 0.29 per game this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 131.2 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
Among all RBs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 94th percentile for red zone carries this year, comprising 71.4% of the volume in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.
While Javonte Williams has accounted for 17.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much less involved in Dallas's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 11.1%.