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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 64.5% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • With a 62.4% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Cowboys.
  • The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Javonte Williams has received 50.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
  • Javonte Williams has totaled a mere -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 14th percentile among RBs.
  • The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The receiving touchdown column reads "0" on Javonte Williams's player page since the start of last season.

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