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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
  • Javonte Williams rates in the 91st percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 17.9 figure since the start of last season.
  • Javonte Williams's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 78.1% to 100.0%.
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Chicago's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (45.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Dallas Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
  • The leading projections forecast Javonte Williams to be a much bigger part of his offense's ground game near the end zone in this week's game (58.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.3% in games he has played).
  • In regards to air yards, Javonte Williams grades out in the paltry 25th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -1.0 per game.

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