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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-138/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Cowboys have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • Javonte Williams ranks in the 88th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.14 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • Among all RBs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 96th percentile for red zone carries this year, comprising 68.2% of the volume in his offense's ground game near the end zone.
  • Javonte Williams has accrued a meager -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 9th percentile among RBs.
  • Javonte Williams's 12.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 18.4.

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