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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-132/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 60.6% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Dallas Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.
  • Among all running backs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 96th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, accounting for 72.9% of the workload in his offense's run game near the end zone.
  • Javonte Williams has accrued a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 13th percentile among RBs.
  • Javonte Williams's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 18.4.

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