Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect Javonte Williams to garner 3.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
With a stellar 2.4 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams ranks as one of the leading pass-catching running backs in football.
Javonte Williams's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 77.6% to 83.5%.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.

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