Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to earn 3.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Javonte Williams has been among the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Javonte Williams's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.9% to 74.7%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.