Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-184/+133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to garner 3.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 10.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 80th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.