Javonte Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to accumulate 3.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Javonte Williams has been among the top pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 17.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
The Bears pass defense has displayed weak efficiency against running backs since the start of last season, conceding 6.93 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
The Bears pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 15.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The projections expect the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Broncos to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: fewest in the NFL.
Javonte Williams has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (27.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (42.9%).

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