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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Javonte Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
  • This week, Javonte Williams is expected by the projection model to slot into the 77th percentile among RBs with 14.1 rush attempts.
  • Javonte Williams has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (65.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (32.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to run on 35.5% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
  • When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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