Jarvis Landry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+304/-544).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +309 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +304.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Jarvis Landry to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (19.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
Jarvis Landry has notched a colossal 61.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
Jarvis Landry's 34.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 54.7.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.