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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jared Goff Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+800/-2200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +800 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +800.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Jared Goff's 80.6% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteworthy gain in his passing accuracy over last season's 72.0% mark.

With an excellent rate of 1.75 per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff ranks as one of the best TD throwers in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has given up a feeble 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

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