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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Jared Goff Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1800/-2500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -11000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2500.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
  • This week, Jared Goff is expected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.2.
  • Taking on a lowly 1.4% of his team's red zone carries this year (22nd percentile among quarterbacks), Jared Goff's lack of mobility makes him no threat in Detroit's rushing attack near the goal line.
  • Jared Goff has been one of the top TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 2.00 per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Jared Goff's 67.9% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a significant reduction in his passing precision over last year's 72.0% mark.
  • This year, the stout Vikings defense has surrendered a puny 67.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.

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