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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-121/+113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Jared Goff's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 72.0% to 76.8%.
  • Jared Goff has been among the best TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 1.71 per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
  • This year, the porous Chiefs defense has given up a whopping 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (53.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Detroit Lions.
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Lions.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.2 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the strong Chiefs defense has given up a measly 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in football.

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