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Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-172/+140).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.In this game, Jared Goff is predicted by the model to total the 6th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.9. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.Jared Goff has been one of the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.93 per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.With a 47.8% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the league in these cases has been the Lions.When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.Jared Goff's 68.9% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a remarkable regression in his passing accuracy over last year's 72.0% figure.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's CB corps has been excellent this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.
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