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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-101/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions last year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 35.1 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs.

With an exceptional 72.0% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) last year, Jared Goff stands among the most accurate passers in football.

With a stellar ratio of 2.18 per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the top TD passers in the league last year.

Last year, the anemic Green Bay Packers defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions rank as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) last year with a 48.6% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

Last year, the formidable Green Bay Packers defense has given up a mere 1.47 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-best rate in the league.

The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

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