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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.

As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

Jared Goff's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.1% to 68.6%.

Jared Goff has been one of the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.80 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 49.9% red zone pass rate.

This year, the daunting Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a paltry 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 6th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.

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