Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (6.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to earn 1.9 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Jared Goff has grinded out a measly 5.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (16th percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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