Jared Goff Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Passing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 260.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 271.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 260.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to throw 35.9 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
With an exceptional record of 250.0 adjusted passing yards per game (90th percentile), Jared Goff has been among the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.
Jared Goff has been one of the most efficient QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.51 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 4-point favorite in this week's game.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 29.2 per game) since the start of last season.
The Cardinals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the league.

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