Jared Goff Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.1% to 69.1%.
Since the start of last season, the poor Packers defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.2% Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The model projects Jared Goff to attempt 33.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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