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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jared Goff Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects Jared Goff to notch 2.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
  • Jared Goff is not much of a rusher and has accounted for a lowly 3.9% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 16th percentile among quarterbacks.
  • The Vikings defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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