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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Jared Goff Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 45.2% of their downs: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Jared Goff is predicted by the projection model to total the 3rd-fewest carries among all QBs with 1.8.
  • Taking on just 5.3% of his offense's rush attempts this year (23rd percentile among quarterbacks), Jared Goff's lack of mobility makes him no threat as a ball-carrier.
  • The Cleveland defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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