My Account Log Out

reorder

Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jameson Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Jameson Williams to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (13.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).

When it comes to air yards, Jameson Williams grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a striking 70.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has given up a feeble 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

More Jameson Williams Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™