Jameson Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jameson Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jameson Williams

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jameson Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-121/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions last year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).
With a sizeable 87.3% Route% (81st percentile) last year, Jameson Williams has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
In this contest, Jameson Williams is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among wide receivers with 6.7 targets.
As it relates to air yards, Jameson Williams ranks in the towering 82nd percentile among wide receivers last year, accumulating a massive 73.0 per game.
Jameson Williams rates as one of the top pass-catching WRs last year, averaging a fantastic 56.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Packers defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 124.0) to wide receivers last year.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown good efficiency against wide receivers last year, yielding 7.83 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

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