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James Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.James Robinson has run a route on 46.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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James Robinson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing just 69.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile.The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
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