James Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
James Robinson's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 87.0%.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
James Robinson has been responsible for a measly -1.0% of his team's air yards this year: just 18th percentile among RBs.
James Robinson's 9.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 14.5.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (72.4%) vs. running backs this year (72.4%).

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