James Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.

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