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James Cook

James Cook Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

James Cook Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-172/+156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -142 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -172.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

James Cook has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 7.1% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among running backs.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

James Cook's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 84.7% to 100.0%.

With an exceptional rate of 0.11 per game through the air (80th percentile), James Cook stands as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in the league among RBs since the start of last season.

The Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 9th-most receiving TDs in the NFL to running backs: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.

James Cook has been given 55.6% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.

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