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James Cook Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/+116).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -118.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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When it comes to air yards, James Cook ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an impressive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).James Cook's 13.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 75th percentile for running backs.The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.James Cook's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 84.7% to 91.9%.With an outstanding rate of 0.12 per game through the air (81st percentile), James Cook rates among the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to RBs this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (48.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buffalo Bills.The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.James Cook has been given 59.8% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
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