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James Cook

James Cook Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
James Cook Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • When talking about air yards, James Cook ranks in the lofty 88th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an impressive 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • James Cook's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 84.6% to 96.4%.
  • This year, the poor Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered a staggering 86.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the poor Bengals defense has been torched for a massive 0.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 45.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 6th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 126.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Among all running backs, James Cook grades out in the 89th percentile for red zone carries this year, taking on 57.4% of the workload in his team's run game near the end zone.

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