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James Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-122).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -109.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.The Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.James Cook's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 84.7% to 95.5%.When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Houston's group of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.At the present time, the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.James Cook has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, playing on 60.0% of snaps compared to just 50.0% last year.The Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.9%) versus RBs this year (76.9%).
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