James Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
James Cook has run more routes this year (49.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (19.1%).
The predictive model expects James Cook to accumulate 3.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
James Cook's receiving skills have improved this year, notching 2.3 adjusted catches compared to a mere 1.3 last year.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

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