James Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Buffalo Bills O-line has given their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
James Cook has run a route on 14.7% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among running backs.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
James Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among running backs, catching a mere 61.9% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile.

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