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James Cook

James Cook Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • James Cook has run a route on 49.0% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
  • The predictive model expects James Cook to earn 3.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • James Cook's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling just 5.82 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.97 rate last season.
  • James Cook's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a significant diminishment in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 8.1% figure.

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