James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 5:56 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a massive 6.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
James Cook ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 14.9 mark this year.
James Cook's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 83.8% to 88.2%.
James Cook checks in as one of the most effective receivers in football among RBs, averaging a terrific 8.78 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 90th percentile.
James Cook grades out as one of the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a terrific 9.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 122.6 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.