James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 3:26 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When it comes to air yards, James Cook grades out in the towering 81st percentile among RBs this year, totaling an astounding 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
James Cook has been in the 78th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 14.6 mark this year.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Jets defensive ends project as the 5th-worst DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

With a 10-point advantage, the Bills are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 51.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Bills this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.