James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 8:51 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The predictive model expects James Cook to earn 3.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With an elite 9.9% Target Rate (78th percentile) this year, James Cook ranks among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the predictive model to run just 61.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 53.8 per game on average).
James Cook has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
James Cook's 6.1 adjusted yards per target this season represents a material decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 8.6 mark.
The Lions defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) to running backs this year.

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