James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 2, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast James Cook to notch 3.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.
When it comes to air yards, James Cook ranks in the towering 80th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a whopping 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
James Cook places in the 84th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 16.6 figure this year.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see only 122.1 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically mean worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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