James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, James Cook is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 78th percentile among RBs with 3.0 targets.
James Cook has accrued a colossal 6.0 air yards per game last year: 97th percentile among running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
James Cook has been in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 16.9 mark last year.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
With a stellar 28.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (95th percentile) last year, James Cook stands among the top pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Bills being a huge 7-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense's impact on pace, at 28.35 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the 7th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense last year: 3rd-fewest in the league.