James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect James Cook to earn 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When it comes to air yards, James Cook ranks in the towering 96th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 8.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
James Cook's 17.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 10.4.
The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against running backs this year, yielding 4.54 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

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