James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-121/-119).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 69.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects James Cook to total 3.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
James Cook has posted a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the most receiving yards per game in the league (47.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
James Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a measly 63.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 2nd percentile.

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