James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-101/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
James Cook has notched a colossal 6.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (85.2%) versus RBs this year (85.2%).
The Buffalo Bills O-line has given their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.