James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
James Cook has accrued a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Detroit Lions linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
James Cook has run a route on 10.5% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 16th percentile among RBs.
James Cook has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs, completing a mere 48.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 7th percentile.
James Cook has been among the weakest RBs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.