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James Conner

James Conner Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+101/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects James Conner to be much less involved in his team's running game near the goal line in this week's contest (56.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.1% in games he has played).

With a sizeable 10.0% Red Zone Target% (85th percentile) this year, James Conner rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

James Conner's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 89.1% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cardinals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats too low) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

James Conner has put up a feeble -6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 2nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

James Conner has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (89th percentile).

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