James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:00 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accumulate 14.4 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
James Conner has received 48.3% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
James Conner has averaged 50.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (80th percentile).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
James Conner's running effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling just 3.21 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.19 mark last season.
James Conner has been among the bottom RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.20 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 7th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a mere 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.