James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-183).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
James Conner has garnered 53.3% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
James Conner has rushed for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (86th percentile).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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