James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-173).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.2 plays per game.
James Conner has earned 50.0% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.
James Conner has run for 0.94 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in football among running backs (98th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Arizona Cardinals have utilized some form of misdirection on just 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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